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N.K. tends to undertake provocations one month before or after U.S. election: CSIS

All Headlines 01:44 October 12, 2016

WASHINGTON, Oct. 11 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un tends to undertake provocations one month before or after a U.S. election, a U.S. think tank said, suggesting the communist regime could do something bad in the next two months.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies said its analysis of correlation between U.S. elections and North Korean provocations found that under Kim Jong-un, the average window for a North Korean provocation bracketed around all U.S. national elections is an average of 4 weeks.

"This pattern suggests a provocation as early as one month before the U.S. presidential election in the first week of October ... or during the transition period for the next administration (starting in December)," CSIS said on its "Beyond Parallel" website focused on North Korea analysis.

The window of provocations was wider under previous leaders, 6 weeks during the reign of Kim Jong-il, father of the current leader, and 13 weeks during the reign of Kim Il-sung, national founder and grandfather of the current leader, CSIS said.

It also said that there are three instances in the past where North Korea had welcomed U.S. elections with a provocation on the same day —- the 1978 midterm election, the 1980 presidential election, and the 1996 presidential election.

Concerns have persisted that the North could undertake fresh provocations, such as a new nuclear test or a long-range rocket launch, as early as Monday's anniversary of the North's ruling Workers' Party, with satellite imagery showing increased activity at the nuclear and missile test sites.

Officials have cautioned that the North could carry out such tests at any time.

jschang@yna.co.kr
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