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(2nd LD) BOK expects economy to contract this year due to virus fallout

All News 12:13 May 28, 2020

(ATTN: UPDATES with remarks from BOK Gov. Lee, more details in paras 5-9)
By Byun Duk-kun

SEOUL, May 28 (Yonhap) -- The Bank of Korea (BOK) on Thursday sharply slashed its growth outlook for the year, projecting a 0.2 percent on-year contraction amid the coronavirus pandemic, which would mark the slowest growth in over two decades.

The latest outlook for Asia's fourth-largest economy is a sharp cut from its earlier estimate of a 2.1 percent expansion this year and last year's 2 percent gain.

The sharp reduction from the February estimate follows the extensive spread of the new coronavirus that has infected more than 5 million people globally.

"The board expects that domestic economic growth will remain sluggish for some time due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. GDP growth is projected to fall considerably below the February forecast of 2.1 percent to around 0 percent, and uncertainties around the future path of GDP growth are also judged to be very high," the BOK said in a statement on its latest monetary policy decision.

(2nd LD) BOK expects economy to contract this year due to virus fallout - 1

BOK Gov. Lee Ju-yeol said the country's economic growth may further slow down, depending on the future course of the COVID-19 pandemic.

"Because the uncertainties regarding the spread of COVID-19 and its impact continue to remain very high, we cannot but review conditions based on assumptions about the future course of COVID-19," he told a press conference, adding the latest growth estimate of 0.2 percent contraction is based on what he called the "basic scenario."

"It is based on an assumption that the pandemic will reach its peak in the second quarter globally, and that there will not be any major second wave of the virus in the country," Lee said.

Under a different scenario where the pandemic can be terminated at an earlier date, the country's economic growth may turn positive this year.

But under a gloomier scenario, where the peak in the pandemic is delayed and South Korea faces a second spike, the country's economy may shrink by a "much greater margin," Lee said.

This undated file photo shows containers carrying export goods in the southeastern city of Busan, South Korea's largest seaport. (Yonhap)

Given grim the economic outlook, the central bank slashed the base interest rate by a quarter percentage point to a record low of 0.50 percent.

The spread of the virus in other parts of the globe is beginning to take a heavy toll on the country's export-dependent economy.

South Korea's outbound shipments plunged 24.3 percent on-year last month, leading to its first trade deficit in over 8 years. Its exports inched down 0.2 percent in March, following a 4.5 percent on-year increase the month before.

Still, a sharp cut to the BOK's growth outlook had been widely anticipated with many others expecting the local economy to record its worst performance since 1998 when it shrank 5.1 percent due to the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

The BOK said the South Korean economy has only twice posted annual contractions, in 1980 and 1998, since it began compiling such data in 1953.

The central bank said the country's economy is expected to rebound next year, forecasting a 3.1 percent on-year growth.

Consumer prices are expected to rise 0.3 percent this year, followed by a 1.1 percent growth in 2021, it added.

South Korea's fight against the novel coronavirus has been and still is considered exemplary, with many of its steps taken now considered global standards.

The number of infection cases here remains at slightly more than 11,300 as of Thursday, more than four months after the country reported its first confirmed case on Jan. 20.


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