(News Focus) N. Korea's 1st military spy satellite launch likely be timed with key July anniv.: experts

By Kim Soo-yeon

SEOUL, May 17 (Yonhap) -- North Korea has announced the completion of preparations to mount its first military spy satellite on a rocket, but some experts predicted the North may launch it around a key anniversary in July to flex its military muscle with success.

The North's leader Kim Jong-un on Tuesday inspected the country's non-permanent committee designed to prepare for the launch of a military reconnaissance satellite and approved of its "future action plan," the Korean Central News Agency reported Wednesday.

The secretive regime said the satellite is "ready for loading" on a rocket, after undergoing the final general assembly check and space environment test, stressing an "urgent requirement" to bolster its defense capabilities.

Kim's on-site inspection came about a month after he said the country completed building the satellite and ordered final preparations for the launch "as planned" during his visit to the state aerospace development agency in April.

The development of a military spy satellite is one of the high-tech weapons projects laid out at a key party congress in January 2021, along with a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile and a nuclear-powered submarine.

Experts said the spy satellite launch does not appear to be imminent, as Pyongyang may need "at least three or four weeks" for an actual launch, given the time needed for technical checks.

To put a satellite into an orbit, precise work should be carried out, including the transport of a payload and assembly of a satellite and launch vehicle.

"The North may be able to launch the satellite in early June or mid-June at the earliest date. But the country is more likely to calibrate the timing of the launch in the run-up to 'Victory Day' in July for its success after thorough preparations," Hong Min, a researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said.

North Korea will mark the 70th anniversary of "Victory Day" on July 27, the signing date of the armistice that halted the 1950-53 Korean War. The North calls the conflict the Great Fatherland Liberation War.

The North is likely to celebrate the upcoming anniversary with a possible military parade, in a bid to boast its military capabilities, as the country has been focusing on expanding its arsenal of nuclear weapons.

Hong said North Korea has been ramping up satellite developments under the pretext of safeguarding its "sovereignty and self-defense," apparently competing against South Korea's push for satellite launches and trying to bolster deterrence against the United States.

Kim Dong-yub, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, also said the North is expected to take time for the satellite launch, as its prime goal is to thoroughly achieve the goal of the defense projects laid out at the eighth congress of the ruling Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) in 2021.

"After completing preparations in terms of technology, climate and other conditions, North Korea is expected to launch the spy satellite, when it feels confident at a point in a period spanning from mid-June to its other key anniversaries in September and October," Kim said.

The North also will celebrate the 70th anniversary of the regime's establishment on Sept. 9, this year and mark the 78th founding anniversary of the WPK on Oct. 10.

In December, the North carried an "important, final-stage" test for the development of a military spy satellite, and released black-and-white photos of Seoul and a nearby city, which it said were shot from its "test-piece satellite."

Analysts said the North is expected to notify international agencies, such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the International Telecommunication Union, of its plan for the satellite launch in a bid to show that it is pursuing "legitimate" space development projects.

The North previously notified the IMO and other international agencies of its plan for what it claimed to be a satellite launch, including the "Kwangmyongsong-4" launched in February 2016.

The North's leader Kim visited the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground, the country's satellite test site on the west coast in March last year, and called for its expansion and modernization to launch various rockets carrying multipurpose satellites, including a military spy satellite, in the future.

38 North, a U.S. website monitoring North Korea, recently said activity at the launch pad area at the Sohae facility has resumed after nearly a half-year hiatus. It said a new tower crane with a height of about 90 meters has been erected next to the existing tower.

sooyeon@yna.co.kr
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